Spruce Bark Beetle Outbreak Prediction through Automatic Classification of Sentinel-2 Imagery

Extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and intensity, posing a threat to forest ecosystems eliciting forest-pest outbreaks. In the southern Italian Alps, dramatic windthrow called Vaia occurred October 2018, shifting populations of European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) from an endemic epidemic phase. Remote-sensing methods often employed detect areas affected by disturbances, such as outbreaks, over large regions. this study, random model on Sentinel-2 images acquired south-eastern Alps 2021 2022 was used outbreak spots. The automatic classification tested validated exploiting ground data collected through survey conducted both healthy infested spots, characterized variable sizes degrees infestation. correctly identified conditions (healthy or infested) with overall accuracy 72% for 58% 2021. These results highlight possibility locating I. typographus even small spots (between 5 50 trees) intermixed trees. prompt detection higher outbreaks could be useful tool integrate field surveys select which concentrate management operations.